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Where Is The Bottom?

احدث اجدد واروع واجمل واشيك Where Is The Bottom?

The markets took a pause today as they eagerly await tomorrows Non Farm Payroll numbers. As long as the data meets the estimate then the markets should trade higher. A miss might cause a small sell-off but it will only be temporary, as people will stop thinking the Fed is about to raise rates. In other words whatever the number comes in at, it's a win-win for the bulls.

Gold was lower for the day, closing down $5 to $1,372. The US Dollar was much higher so that weighed on the precious metal. Right now with gold under the 50 day it's anybody's guess where it goes from here.

The ^HUI can't get a break, as the index was hammered once again, closing down 13 points to 532. Today's sell-off was much worse than what gold went through, as gold stocks are once again underperforming the precious metal.

The sell-off in gold stocks is now overdone, either they are going to have a big rebound tomorrow or gold is about to tank. We appear to be having some major fund liquidation in the gold stocks, as clearly they have no clue what they are doing or what is going on. Many were getting in late November, and now they are all heading for the exits. Is it any wonder most funds can't beat the S&P?

The bigger question is where is the bottom for gold stocks? If we can get a big upmove tomorrow, maybe about 15 points, then that would be a good start. But the key is to get back above the 50 day, which is going to take a few trading sessions. The good news is the volume was big on a lot of stocks, so hopefully the sellers are getting exhausted. The last 6 months has been a pretty good time for the gold stock bulls, as the ^HUI has been in a nice uptrend for that time. The sell-offs were minor, and within a few weeks the index was at a new high. But anybody who invest in gold stocks know that they aren't that well behaved, they like to act a lot more volatile. Unfortunately it looks like they are back to their old ways again. That's just the way it is with these, and the more they go up the worse these swings are going to get. I was hoping the index would stay in that nice little uptrend but unfortunately it didn't.

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